针对网络攻击严重威胁电力系统安全运行的现状,文中对面向网络攻击的电力信息物理系统风险量化评估问题展开分析。本文从由网络攻击造成的典型停电事故出发,阐述电力信息物理系统的风险来源及传播机理。然后对比传统信息系统及电力系统,对电力信息物理系统风险量化评估的特点展开讨论,并进一步基于节点风险概率、风险传播概率和物理量损失量三个方面,对电力系统风险量化计算方法进行分析总结。最后,面向网络攻击的发展方向,对未来研究提出建议和展望。In view of the current situation that cyber attacks pose a serious threat to the safe operation of power systems, this paper analyzes the quantitative risk assessment of cyber-physical power systems for cyber attacks. Based on the typical power outages caused by cyber attacks, the sources of risk and the mechanisms of risk propagation within cyber-physical power systems is elucidated. Then, compared with traditional information systems and power systems, the distinctive characteristics of risk quantification assessment for cyber-physical power systems are discussed. Furthermore, based on nodal risk probability, risk propagation probability, and physical quantity loss, the quantitative risk calculation methods for power systems is summarized. Finally, facing the development direction of network attacks, suggestions and prospects for future research are proposed.
