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国家自然科学基金(40975031)

作品数:31 被引量:142H指数:8
相关作者:张立凤黎爱兵关吉平王秋良罗雨更多>>
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发文基金:国家自然科学基金国家重点基础研究发展计划博士科研启动基金更多>>
相关领域:天文地球理学自动化与计算机技术更多>>

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31 条 记 录,以下是 1-10
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预测海温强迫下的月动力延伸集合预报试验
对海表温度(SST)资料,利用具有季节循环的基本气候态滤掉年信号,然后对全球(南北纬60度之间)的SST距平进行EOF分解,保留前15个模态,各模态的时间系数进行Kalman滤波和预测,根据kalman滤波所得到的各模态...
王秋良关吉平雷博符昊
关键词:EOFKALMAN滤波SST动力延伸
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真实基流中非线性Rossby波演变特征(二):能量、结构演变及初始场影响被引量:8
2011年
针对非线性的准地转正压位涡方程,利用自行设计的差分格式和高斯函数拟合得到的真实基流分布,数值研究了线性和非线性Rossby波流场结构和总能量的演变以及初值对总能量演变的影响.发现在非线性的真实基流中,线性和非线性Rossby波的相对总能量出现振荡型增长或衰减,非线性波动的振荡周期明显小于线性波动,非线性项不仅抑制能量的快速发展,也抑制能量的快速衰减;线性Rossby波的流场结构一直是以标准的正弦(或余弦)方式演变,而非线性Rossby波则是以类似椭圆余弦波的方式演变,并会出现长波调整现象;非线性Rossby波对初始场和基流结构具有强烈的依赖性,在其总能量演变过程中,可出现类似混沌的现象.
张立凤张亮李崇银
关键词:初始场
Iterative and adjusting method for computing stream function and velocity potential in limited domains and convergence analysis
2012年
The stream function and the velocity potential can be easily computed by solving the Poisson equations in a unique way for the global domain. Because of the var- ious assumptions for handling the boundary conditions, the solution is not unique when a limited domain is concerned. Therefore, it is very important to reduce or eliminate the effects caused by the uncertain boundary condition. In this paper, an iterative and ad- justing method based on the Endlich iteration method is presented to compute the stream function and the velocity potential in limited domains. This method does not need an explicitly specifying boundary condition when used to obtain the effective solution, and it is proved to be successful in decomposing and reconstructing the horizontal wind field with very small errors. The convergence of the method depends on the relative value for the distances of grids in two different directions and the value of the adjusting factor. It is shown that applying the method in Arakawa grids and irregular domains can obtain the accurate vorticity and divergence and accurately decompose and reconstruct the original wind field. Hence, the iterative and adjusting method is accurate and reliable.
黎爱兵张立凤臧增亮张云
关键词:CONVERGENCE
有限区域求解流函数和速度势的迭代调整方法及其收敛性分析被引量:6
2012年
全球区域求解流函数和速度势的解是唯一的,但有限区域内,由于受区域边界条件限制,流函数和速度势的计算以及风场的分解不是唯一的,减小或消除边界不确定对结果的影响是有限区域求解流函数和速度势以及分解风场最重要的问题.该文在Endlich迭代调整思想上,提出了能准确求解有限区域流函数和速度势且对边界条件要求较低的迭代调整方法.该方法也能准确地分解和重建风场,且风场重建的误差非常小.对该迭代方法的收敛性进行分析,发现其收敛性与不同方向网格的格距和调整系数有关.最后将该方法应用到Arakawa A-D网格和不规则区域,验证了该方法的可靠性.
黎爱兵张立凤臧增亮张云
关键词:收敛性
动能水平梯度的本质及其诊断
本文由正压原始运动方程组出发,推导出大、中、小不同尺度天气系统中的动能梯度与地转偏差之间的关系,并用上海'8.25'暴雨模拟结果进行了动能水平梯度的诊断。发现:在各种尺度正压大气的演变过程中,风基本是沿着等能量线吹的。动...
于杰张铭
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台风路径集合预报试验被引量:12
2012年
基于T63L9模式,利用BGM法进行了台风路径的集合预报试验,并对集合预报中的一个关键技术—繁殖长度进行了研究。结果表明:相对于控制预报,利用增长模繁殖法制作的集合预报对台风路径预报的技巧水平有了很大提高。集合预报中采用不同的繁殖长度对台风路径预报效果有一定影响。繁殖长度取2 d和3 d集合预报效果相对于控制预报都有很大提高。繁殖长度取为2 d时,集合离散度较小,取为3 d时较合理,取为4 d时,离散度较大。对台风路径的预报采用集合选择平均后,繁殖2 d和繁殖3 d的集合预报系统的预报效果都优于控制预报。从综合集合预报效果分析,繁殖长度取为3 d更合适。当集合预报中繁殖长度取为3 d时,在预报的前3天,台风路径集合预报误差基本维持在100 km,第4天误差也只接近300 km。相对于控制预报,集合预报的改进率在预报的2~4 d基本超过了60%,甚至可达到70%。
王秋良刘家峻张立凤
关键词:台风路径
A Case Study of the Error Growth and Predictability of a Meiyu Frontal Heavy Precipitation Event被引量:1
2011年
The Advanced Regional Eta-coordinate Model (AREM) is used to explore the predictability of a heavy rainfall event along the Meiyu front in China during 3-4 July 2003. Based on the sensitivity of precipitation prediction to initial data sources and initial uncertainties in different variables, the evolution of error growth and the associated mechanism are described and discussed in detail in this paper. The results indicate that the smaller-amplitude initial error presents a faster growth rate and its growth is characterized by a transition from localized growth to widespread expansion error. Such modality of the error growth is closely related to the evolvement of the precipitation episode, and consequently remarkable forecast divergence is found near the rainband, indicating that the rainfall area is a sensitive region for error growth. The initial error in the rainband contributes significantly to the forecast divergence, and its amplification and propagation are largely determined by the initial moisture distribution. The moisture condition also affects the error growth on smaller scales and the subsequent upscale error cascade. In addition, the error growth defined by an energy norm reveals that large error energy collocates well with the strong latent heating, implying that the occurrence of precipitation and error growth share the same energy source-the latent heat. This may impose an intrinsic predictability limit on the prediction of heavy precipitation.
罗雨张立凤
关键词:PREDICTABILITYAREM
EFFECT OF INSTABILITIES OF FLOW ON MESOSCALE PREDICTABILITY OF WEATHER SYSTEMS被引量:3
2011年
The numerical solution of Boussinesq equations is worked out as an initial-value problem to study the effect of the instabilities of flow on the initial error growth and mesoscale predictability. The development of weather systems depends on different dynamic instability mechanisms according to the spatial scales of the system and the development of mesoscale systems is determined by symmetric instability. Since symmetric instability dominates among the three types of dynamic instability, it makes the prediction of the associated mesoscale systems more sensitive to initial uncertainties. This indicates that the stronger instability leads to faster initial error growth and thus limits the mesoscale predictability. Besides dynamic instability, the impact of thermodynamic instability is also explored. The evolvement of convective instability manifests as dramatic variation in small spatial scale and short temporal scale, and furthermore, it exhibits the upscale growth. Since these features determine the initial error growth, the mesoscale systems arising from convective instability are less predictable and the upscale error growth limits the predictability of larger scales. The latent heating is responsible for changing the stability of flow and subsequently influencing the error growth and the predictability.
LUO Yu ZHANG Li-feng
关键词:PREDICTABILITY
Analysis and numerical study of a hybrid BGM-3DVAR data assimilation scheme using satellite radiance data for heavy rain forecasts被引量:2
2013年
A fine heavy rain forecast plays an important role in the accurate flood forecast, the urban rainstorm watedogging and the secondary hydrological disaster preventions. To improve the heavy rain forecast skills, a hybrid Breeding Growing Mode (BGM)- three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) Data Assimilation (DA) scheme is designed on running the Advanced Research WRF (ARW WRF) model using the Advanced Microwave Sounder Unit A (AMSU-A) satellite radiance data. Results show that: the BGM ense- mble prediction method can provide an effective background field and a flow dependent background error covariance for the BGM- 3DVAR scheme. The BGM-3DVAR scheme adds some effective mesoscale information with similar scales as the heavy rain clu- sters to the initial field in the heavy rain area, which improves the heavy rain forecast significantly, while the 3DVAR scheme adds information with relatively larger scales than the heavy rain clusters to the initial field outside of the heavy rain area, which does not help the heavy rain forecast improvement. Sensitive experiments demonstrate that the flow dependent background error covariance and the ensemble mean background field are both the key factors for adding effective mesoscale information to the heavy rain area, and they are both essential for improving the heavy rain forecasts.
熊春晖张立凤关吉平彭军张斌
有限区域流函数和速度势的计算及其在台风中应用被引量:3
2012年
在Endlich提出求解旋转风和辐散风基础上,本文给出了直接利用风场迭代计算流函数和速度势的方法,该方法不但能求解流函数和速度势,还可将原始风场直接分解为旋转风和辐散风。此方法在有限区域中,能大大降低边界条件对计算结果的影响,不仅能计算准确的涡度和散度,还能很好的重建原始风场。采用此方法,对"0808"号台风"凤凰"进行了诊断分析,得到了台风不同时期的流函数和速度势、旋转风和辐散风。结果发现在台风的不同时期,流函数与高度场相似,可用其低值中心来分析台风移动路径和强度的变化,速度势存在高值区,其中心与高度场低值中心不吻合;旋转风的涡旋中心也可用来反映台风中心,台风南侧辐散风较大,故可用来反映南方水汽供应对台风发展、成熟、衰退的影响。
黎爱兵张立凤臧增亮张云
关键词:台风迭代
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