Based on a large number of actual data, the author believe that the modem global warming and sea level rise resulted from climate warming after the cold front of the Little Ice Age about 200 years ago and the developmnet of the sea level rise phase. In the past 30 years, the rate of sea level rise was increasing, which is under the background of the average temperature uplift 0.2F°（0.11℃）every 10 years in succession from the 1980s to the past 10 years this century. On the basis of the absolute and relative sea-level rise rate that was calculated from the tidal data during the same period at home and abroad in the last 30 years, in accordance with the resolutions of the 2010 climate conference in Cancun, at the same time, considering the previous prediction and research, the world＇s sea levels and the relative sea level in Tianjin, Shanghai, Dongying, Xiamen, Haikou and other coastal cities that have severe land subsidence in 2050 and 2100 are calculated and evaluated.
The sea-level change is resulted from superposition of sun, moon and other planeries, and earth itself, biological process, atmosphere and oceanography, as well as artificial actions. As a result, the sea level change is really a sensitive integral variation value of many variations, or a combined function of coupling effects of various big systems. Therefore the above mentioned superposed action of different systems and the coupling effect of sun earth and biological aspects may be called as sun earth biological coupling effect system. Based on this hypothesis, the corresponding sun dynamic, air dynamic, water dynamic and earth dynamic conceptional models are established in order to research the multiple coupling effects and feedback machsnism between these big systems. In order to determine the relations, effectness and coherent relation of different variations, the quantity, analysis is conducted through collective variation and stage division. The quantity analysis indicates that the earths spindle rotation speed is the dynamic mechanism controlling the sea level change of fluctuation. The change rate of sea level in the world is ＋1.32 ＋ 0.22 mm/a, while the sea level change rate in China is only＋1.39 ＋ 0.26 mm/a in average. If take the CO2 content as the climate marker, eight cold stages （periods） are grouped out since two hundreds years AC. The extreme cold of the eighth cold stage started approximately at 1850 years AC. and if the stage from the extreme cold to extreme warm is determined as long as 200 years, the present ongoing warm stage will end at about 2050 years, there after the temperature will begin to tower. If the stage between cold and warm extremes lasts for 250 years, then the temperature will become lower at about 2100 year. Until to that time, the sea-level is estimated to raise ＋7 - ＋11 ＋ 3.5 cm again, and there after, the sea level will begin the new lowering trend. In the same time, the climate will enter into next new cold stage subsequently.
For understanding more about the water exchange between the Kuroshio and the East China Sea,We studied the variability of the Kuroshio in the East China Sea(ECS) in the period of 1991 to 2008 using a three-dimensional circulation model,and calculated Kuroshio onshore volume transport in the ECS at the minimum of 0.48 Sv(1 Sv ;106 m3/s) in summer and the maximum of 1.69 Sv in winter.Based on the data of WOA05 and NCEP,The modeled result indicates that the Kuroshio transport east of Taiwan Island decreased since 2000.Lateral movements tended to be stronger at two ends of the Kuroshio in the ECS than that of the middle segment.In addition,we applied a spectral mixture model(SMM) to determine the exchange zone between the Kuroshio and the shelf water of the ECS.The result reveals a significantly negative correlation(coefficient of-0.78) between the area of exchange zone and the Kuroshio onshore transport at 200 m isobath in the ECS.This conclusion brings a new view for the water exchange between the Kuroshio and the East China Sea.Additional to annual and semi-annual signals,intra-seasonal signal of probably the Pacific origin may trigger the events of Kuroshio intrusion and exchange in the ECS.
Baroclinic transport and the barotropic effect are two different viewpoints for understanding the mechanism of the Greenland-Scotland Ridge overflow. The mechanism of this overflow, being an important deep branch of thermohaline circulation, deserves research discussion, especially against the background of global warming. Using the newly developed ECHAM5/MPI-OM, of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, which is an advanced atmospheresea iceocean coupled climate model, the mechanism of the Greenland-Scotland Ridge overflow variation under different atmospheric CO2 scenarios is studied. First, a control experiment is forced by a fixed CO2 concentration of 280 ppmv, which is the pre-industrial level before 1860. Three sensitive experiments are carried out under different scenarios of increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations, which are listed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report (B1, A1B and A2). In the control run, more water with higher salinity intruding into the Greenland-Icelandic-Norwegian Seas results in greater barotropic transport and greater overflow because of the baroclinic effect. Therefore, the barotropic effect and baroclinic effect on the overflow are unified. Under the atmospheric CO2 scenarios, the strength of overflow across the Faro-Bank Channel is controlled by the baroclinic effect and the increase in Denmark Strait overflow is attributed to the barotropic effect.
MU LinSONG JunZHONG LinHaoWANG LanNingLI HuanLI Yan
本文以岩性地层、气候地层(CaCO_3含量、古温度和Rb/Sr比值等)、年代地层、沉积化学地层和生物组合地层等资料为基础,根据地层规范以及建组要求将渤海湾西岸全新世地层划分为3个组:独流镇组(Qh_3dl)、大黄洼组(Qh_2dh)和西翟庄组(Qh_1xz)。其地层埋深界线及测年界线分别为:晚全新世独流镇组(Qh_3dl)与中全新世大黄洼组(Qh_2dh)的分组埋深界线为3.70 m,^(14)C年龄界线大致为2 820±80 a B.P.～2 390±60 a B.P.左右;中全新世大黄洼组(Qh_2dh)与早全新世西翟庄组(Qh_1xz)的分组埋深界线为14.10 m,^(14)C年龄界线大致为7 800±120 a B.P.～8 650±85 a B.P.左右;早全新世西翟庄组(Qh_1xz)与晚更新世塘沽组(QP_3tg)的分组埋深界线为18.70 m,测年^(14)C年龄界线大致为9 405±120 a B.P.～10 300±790 a B.P.左右。根据沉积地球化学环境指标(CaCO_3含量、古温度和Rb/Sr比值等)划分出第Ⅰ气候冷段～第Ⅴ气候冷段;根据C_(org)/P_2O_5、Fe^2/Fe^3等含量曲线综合分析划出第Ⅰ·还原带～第Ⅴ·还原带。综合分析显示:气候冷期时往往处于还原环境,与此同时,海平面则呈波动下降趋势。
