It is generally agreed that global warming is taking place, which has caused runoff generation processes and apparently total runoff amount changes in cold regions of Northwestern China. It is absolutely necessary to quantify and analyze earth surface hydrolog- ical processes by numerical models for formulating scientific sustainable development of water resources. Hydrological models became established tools for studying the hydrological cycle, but did not consider frozen soil or glacier hydrology. Thus, they should be improved to satisfy the simulation of hydrological processes in cold regions. In this paper, an energy balance glacier melt model was successfully coupled to the VIC model with frozen soil scheme, thus improving the models performance in a cold catchment area. We performed the improved VIC model to simulate the hydrological processes in the Aksu River Basin, and the simulated results are in good agreement with observed data. Based on modeling hydrological data, the runoff components and their response to climate change were analyzed. The results show： （1） Glacial meltwater recharge accounts fbr 29.2% of runoff for the Toxkan River, and 58.7% for the Kunma Like River. （2） The annual total runoffoftwo branches of the Aksu River show in- creasing trends, increased by about 43.1%, 25.75 X 106 m3 per year for the Toxkan River and by 13.1%, 14.09 ~ l06 m3 per year for the Kunma Like River during the latter 38 years. （3） The annual total runoff of the Toxkan River increased simply due to the increase of non-glacial runoff, while the increase of annual total runoff of the Kunma Like River was the result of increasing gla- cial （42%） and non-glacial runoff （58%）.
QiuDong ZhaoBaiSheng YeYongJian DingShiQiang ZhangChuanCheng ZhaoJian WangZengRu Wang
Runoffs in the Yellow River and Yangtze River basins, China, have been changing constantly during the last half century. In this paper, data from eight river gauging stations and 529 meteorological stations, inside and adjacent to the study basins, were analyzed and compared to quantify the hydrological processes involved, and to evaluate the role of human activities in chang- ing river discharges. The Inverse Distance Weighted （IDW） interpolation method was used to obtain climatic data coverage from station observations. According to the runoff coefficient equation, the effect of human activities and climate can be ex- pressed by changes in runoff coefficients and changes in precipitation, respectively. Annual runoff coefficients were calculated for the period 1950-2008, according to the correlation between respective hydrological series and regional precipitation. An- nual precipitation showed no obvious trend in the upper reaches of the Yellow River but a marked downward trend in the mid- dle and downstream reaches, with declines of 8.8 and 9.8 ram/10 a, respectively. All annual runoff series for the Yellow River basin showed a significant downward trend. Runoff declined by about 7.8 mm/10 a at Sanmenxia and 10.8 ram/10 a at Lijin. The series results indicated that an abrupt change occurred in the late 1980s to early 1990s. The trend of correlations between annual runoff and precipitation decreased significantly at the Yellow River stations, with rates ranging from 0.013/10 a to 0.019/10 a. For the hydrologic series, all precipitation series showed a downward trend in the Yangtze River basin with de- clines ranging from about 24.7 mm/10 a at Cuntan to 18.2 mm/10 a at Datong. Annual runoff series for the upper reaches of the Yangtze River decreased significantly, at rates ranging from 9.9 to 7.2 mm/10 a. In the middle and lower reaches, the run- off series showed no significant trend, with rates of change ranging from 2.1 to 2.9 ram/10 a. Human activities had the greatest influence on changes in the hydrolo
WANG YanDING YongJianYE BaiShengLIU FengJingWANG JieWANG Jie
The degree-day factor （DDF） is a key parameter in the degree-day model, and the varia- tions in DDF have the significant effects on the accuracy of glacier mass balance modeling. In this study, Glacier No. 1 at the headwaters of Uriimqi （-~O）~Z~=） River in China was selected, and the estimated DDF by stakes-observed mass balance and meteorological data from 1983-2006 was used to analyze the spatio-temporal variability of DDF and its influencing factors, such as climate condition, surface fea- ture, and topography. Then, the ablations from the 1980s to 2000s were estimated using the degree-day modei, and the ablation change from the 1980s to 2000s was divided into the changes caused by climate change and by the ice-surface feature. The following results were obtained： （1） The annual change in DDF for snow was not obvious, whereas that for ice increased, and the increasing trend on the lower glacier was more significant than that on the upper glacier because of decreased albedo caused by vari- ations in ice-surface feature; （2） The DDF for ice clearly decreased with altitude by approximately 0.046 and 0.043 mm.＇C-l-d-Lm-1 on the east and west branches, respectively, and the DDF of the west branch was obviously larger than that of the east branch in the same altitude belt; （3） the changes in mass balance in the summers from the 1980s to 2000s were -391 and -467 mm on the east and west branches, respectively. Among the total changes, the components directly caused by climate change were -193 and -198 mm, whereas those indirectly caused by ice-surface feature change were -198 and -269 mm on the east and west branches, respectively.
