利用观测资料研究发现,东亚-北印度洋对流层热力差异指数(East Asian-North Indian Ocean index,IEANI)与东亚夏季风及相应的中国东部季风降水都具有密切的关系.当IEANI偏高(低)时,东亚中纬度夏季风偏强(弱),华北地区降水偏多(少),江南地区降水偏少(多).为了研究东亚夏季风的长期变化特征,我们利用北京和澳大利亚塔斯曼尼亚地区的重建气温回归了BC665～AD1985年的IEANI.研究发现,在过去2000多年里,重建的IEANI总体上能够指示世纪尺度上的东亚夏季风变化和中国东部降水异常.重建的IEANI与中国东部降水的关系与现代气候所表现出来的关系非常相似,表明这种相关特征也出现在过去2000多年来的世纪尺度上.对于IEANI在更长时间尺度(数百至千年)上的变化特征及其与降水的关系,尚需利用更多类型的代用资料进一步验证.
The dry-wet variability in western China and its spatiotemporal structure during the last 4-5 centuries was examined using 24 climate proxies from sediments, ice cores, historical documents, and tree rings. Spatial patterns and temporal evolutions of dryness and wetness were not only extracted from the proxy data using rotated empirical orthogonal function （REOF） analysis for the last 4 centuries, but also for instrumental data in the last 40 years. The leading five REOF modes indicate that 5 dry-wet variation centers exist in western China. Moreover, long-term variability in dryness and wetness is seen on long （centennial） to short （inter-decadal） timescales. An out-of-phase relationship for the inter-decadal variation was observed between the Hetao-upper Yangtze River region and north Xinjiang, indicating influences on dry-wet variations of the East Asian summer monsoon and the westerly winds over the two regions, respectively. A particularly long dry spell was found in the central Tibetan Plateau in the 19th century. A predominance of wet decades in the last 4 centuries was found in the arid and Hetao regions. Three regional dry-wet series with annual resolution in north Xinjiang, the upper Yellow River valley, and the Hetao area were constructed for analyses of the last 500 years. Dry-wet oscillations with periodicities of 16, 50, and 150 years in north Xinjiang, 50 years in the upper Yellow River valley, and 70-80 years in the Hetao region were identified by wavelet analysis. In general, these periods correspond to large-scale oscillations found in the climate system, are mainly related to ocean-atmosphere interaction.
Using meteorological observations, proxies of precipitation and temperature, and climate simulation outputs, we synthetically analyzed the regularities of decadal-centennial-scale changes in the summer thermal contrast between land and ocean and summer precipitation over the East Asian monsoon region during the past millennium; compared the basic characteristics of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) circulation and precipitation in the present day, the Little Ice Age (LIA) and the Medieval Warm Period (MWP); and explored their links with solar irradiance and global climate change. The results indicate that over the last 150 years, the EASM circulation and precipitation, indicated by the temperature contrast between the East Asian mainland and adjacent oceans, had a significant decadal perturbation and have been weaker during the period of rapid global warming over the past 50 years. On the centennial time scale, the EASM in the MWP was strongest over the past 1000 years. Over the past 1000 years, the EASM was weakest in 1450-1570. When the EASM circulation was weaker, the monsoon rain belt over eastern China was generally located more southward, with there being less precipitation in North China and more precipitation in the Yangtze River valley; therefore, there was an anomalous pattern of southern flood/northern drought. From the 1900s to 1920s, precipitation had a pat- tern opposite to that of the southern flood/northern drought, with there being less precipitation in the Yangtze River valley and more precipitation in North China. Compared with the case for the MWP, there was a longer-time-scale southern flood/northern drought phenomenon in 1400-1600. Moreover, the EASM circulation and precipitation did not synchronously vary with the trend of global temperature. During the last 150 years, although the annual mean surface temperature around the world and in China has increased, the EASM circulation and precipitation did not have strengthening or weakening trends. Over the past 1000 years, the weakest EASM oc
To study the temporally varying features of summer thermal contrast between the Asian continent and the adjacent ocean on decadal-centennial time scales and the links between thermal contrast and solar irradiance, we used a time series of the reconstructed Asian-Pacific oscillation index and solar irradiance over the past millennium. The results showed that thermal contrast in the Asian monsoon region has quasi-90-year, 10-13-year, and 3-7-year periods. On the centennial time scale, thermal contrast showed three abrupt changes, occurring in 1305-1315, 1420-1430, and 1625-1635. There is a significant positive correlation between thermal contrast and solar irradiance, which is particularly strong at 250-year, 120-160-year, 60-70-year, and quasi-15-year periods. The three abrupt changes in thermal contrast corresponded to a significantly weakening or strengthening of solar irradiance, lagging 12-22 years behind the solar irradiance, which possibly reflects an effect of solar irradiance on the abrupt change in Asian monsoon climate on the centennial time scale. On the decadal time scale, the abrupt change in the thermal contrast was not closely associated with solar irradiance, which implies that solar activity may not be a major factor affecting the decadal abrupt change in Asian-Pacific thermal contrast. Relative to thermal contrast, the decadal abrupt change in Northern Hemispheric annual mean surface temperature is more closely associated with solar activity, while its centennial abrupt change has a weaker relationship with solar
Monthly precipitation datasets collected at 160 stations in China as well as the monthly winds and humidity data derived from the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) were used to construct the relationship between six summer dry-wet modes in eastern China and the summer monsoon airflow northward advance in East Asia. A millennial series of the monsoon dry-wet index (MDWI) was reconstructed based on Wang's six summer dry-wet modes in eastern China since 950 AD. A high (low) index indicates that the strong (weak) East Asian summer monsoon airflow can reach northern (southern) China and cause above (below) normal precipitation. Interdecadal periodic variations, such as the approximate 70-year oscillation, can be found in the MDWI series. In the last millennium, northern China has experienced persistent decadal wet periods and persistent decadal dry periods. At present, the MDWI is a low period on the interdecadal time scale so above-normal precipitation is observed in southern China and below-normal precipitation in northern China.
Using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP–NCAR) reanalysis dataset, the NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center’s merged analysis of precipitation, and the MM5v3 Meso-scale Model, the impacts of surface temperature differences between the East Asian land and its adjacent oceans on spring southwesterly winds and rainfall over eastern China are studied. The modeling results show that the temperature differences exert strong influence on the occurrence of the southwesterly winds and rainfall over southern China and their northward advances. When surface temperature increases over the land and decreases over the oceans, the temperature gradient with a winter feature earlier changes toward the gradient with a summer feature. Both the low-pressure system east of the Tibetan Plateau and the subtropical high-pressure system over the western Pacific strengthen, accompanying with the strengthening of the lower-tropospheric southwesterly winds over eastern China. Accordingly, the upward motion increases over the Yangtze-Huaihe River (YHR) valleys and decreases over southern China, leading to an increase of spring rainfall over the YHR valleys and a decrease over southern China. Thus, the rain belt over eastern China appears over the YHR valleys but not over southern China. Under a weaker condition of the spring thermal contrast, the rain belt does not occur over eastern China. When the spring thermal contrast pronouncedly strengthens, the rain belt over southern China may advance northward into the YHR valleys during spring, though there is no onset of the tropical monsoon over the South China Sea. This forms a rain belt similar to that of the YHR valleys during the summer Meiyu period.
