This paper presents a distribution free method for predicting the extreme wind velocity from wind monitoring data at the site of the Runyang Suspension Bridge (RSB), China using the maximum entropy theory. The maximum entropy theory is a rational approach for choosing the most unbiased probability distribution from a small sample, which is consistent with available data and contains a minimum of spurious information. In this paper, the theory is used for estimating a joint probability density function considering the combined action of wind speed and direction based on statistical analysis of wind monitoring data at the site of the RSB. The joint probability distribution model is further used to estimate the extreme wind velocity at the deck level of the RSB. The results of the analysis reveal that the probability density function of the maximum entropy method achieves a result that fits well with the monitoring data. Hypothesis testing shows that the distributions of the wind velocity data collected during the past three years do not obey the Gumbel distribution. Finally, our comparison shows that the wind predictions of the maximum entropy method are higher than that of the Gumbel distribution, but much lower than the design wind speed.
Yang DENG You-liang DING Ai-qun LI Guang-dong ZHOU
A reliability assessment method of fatigue life based on the long-term monitoring data is developed for welded details in steel box girder,and the application research is presented with examples of welded rib-to-deck details in Runyang Bridges. Firstly the fatigue damage limit-state function is established based on S-N curves and Miner's rule,and the probability distribution characteristics of the coefficients in the function are discussed in detail. The uncertainties in fatigue loading effects are mainly studied based on long-term monitoring data. In the traditional studies,only the uncertainty of equivalent stress range is considered in fatigue reliability assessment. However,stress cycle number is also treated as a random variable in this paper because we know traffic flow every day differs in a thousand ways. Then the optimization method is employed to calculate the fatigue reliability. After studying the changing law of the reliability indices with time and the effect of the randomness of stress cycle number on reliability,the effect of the traffic growth on the reliability is studied. This study shows that the uncertainty in the fatigue life of the welded details can be well studied based on structural health monitoring,so it is necessary to carry out long-term strain monitoring of the welded details for accurate fatigue reliability assessment during the whole service period.
